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Memory, Part 2: The Risks from China, Technological Change, and Overcapacity | EP 224

Memory has been one of the strongest corners of the semiconductor industry, and strong returns invite hard questions. In the second part of this series, equity analyst Shan Rui Yeo examines the main risks to the memory thesis: rising competition from China's CXMT and YMTC, the technologies that could reduce AI's appetite for memory, and the wave of capacity investment that could eventually tip the industry back into oversupply. He weighs each risk against the constraints holding it back, from equipment export controls to limited EUV supply, and notes that memory companies already trade at three to five times forward earnings. The conversation closes on a working principle: treat the terminal value as a distribution, not a fixed number.

August 5, 2026
19 Mins
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This blog post is solely intended for informational purposes and should not be construed as individualized investment advice, research, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold specific securities. Information provided reflects current views based on data available at the time or writing and may change without notice. Mawer Investment Management Ltd. and/or its clients may hold positions in the securities mentioned, which may create a potential conflict of interest. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. does not guarantee the completeness or accuracy of this information and disclaims liability for any reliance placed on the publication. Mawer Investment Management Ltd. is not liable for any damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, its use or misuse.