A year ago, global credit spreads were tight and the risks that mattered most were barely in the headlines. Global credit analysts Sandro Morassutti and Marty Lee revisit these themes: the debt funding the AI build-out, the credibility of the Fed and the U.S. government, and fiscal and geopolitical pressure, and assess how each has evolved. They explain why record corporate bond supply has not yet pushed spreads wider, why most of this year’s move has come from government yields rather than credit, and where they are finding value today. Above all, they return to a simple idea: the job is not to predict the next dislocation, but to be positioned with the quality and liquidity to act when one arrives.

Concerns about AI safety and the pace of development have investors asking a harder question: is demand for computing power actually durable? Emerging markets equity portfolio manager Wen Quan Cheong returns from a research trip through Taiwan and South Korea and discusses what AI “pacing” means for chip demand, why inference and alignment could pick up what a slower training cycle gives back, and which parts of the semiconductor supply chain have the strongest structural tailwinds. He explains why margins can widen further down the AI supply chain and what conversations with TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung suggest about the durability of this capital cycle. He also shares a non-AI idea outside the spotlight: a port operator in the Philippines. 

Global equity portfolio manager, Paul Moroz, speaks to a wide range of market topics, including what higher discount rates mean for equity valuations and the subtle shifts you might not see in the headlines but that absolutely matter. 

Stay tuned for the second half, where Paul discusses Millennium Prize math problems, humility, podcast proliferation, and entropy—for those seeking useful mental models for portfolio construction, the payoff is worthwhile.